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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
Former President Donald Trump has overtaken President Biden in several recent significant polls while building a widening lead in others.
Politico noted on Saturday that “Trump’s vote share in national polls is higher than at any time in the past year” because “Biden’s poll numbers keep getting worse.”
According to a survey of registered voters conducted by The New York Times and Siena College in early November, Trump led Biden in Nevada 52-41 percent after the president narrowly won the state in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump also leads Biden in Georgia 49-43 percent.
“Trump leads Biden in Arizona, too, with 49% to the president’s 44%. In Michigan, Trump holds a 5-point lead as well: 48% to Biden’s 43%,” CNN reported, citing the survey.
The former president is also leading Biden in Pennsylvania, a state he won in 2016 but lost in 2020, by a 4-point margin, 48-44 percent. Trump trails Biden in Wisconsin, however, 47-45 percent.
“Trump’s vote share in the national polling average is higher now than at any point in the past year,” Politico added.
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Trump is also now leading Biden in a major national survey for the first time, another huge signal that the current commander-in-chief is in trouble politically heading into next year’s election.
NBC political correspondent Steve Kornacki reported on Sunday that Trump was leading Biden in the network’s poll by a margin of 46-44 percent, adding that while Biden has long held a “likeability” advantage over Trump, the latest survey shows the two men tied in that category as well.
“The gap is gone. Thirty-six percent positive on both and actually Biden, one point more negative than Trump. That’s been a significant advantage for Biden. Our poll says that advantage, at least for now, may be gone,” Kornacki noted.
In addition, the political correspondent said that, according to the survey, just 40 percent of respondents gave Biden positive job approval, which is also the lowest number in the span of the current president’s term.
And just 30 percent of self-identifying Independents give Biden positive job approval ratings.
“If you take a look here by party, I think it’s significant for two reasons: one, Independents, obviously, more than two to one disapprove. You don’t want to be there as an incumbent president. But I think equally significant, no surprise, 7% of Republicans approve of Joe Biden, job performance, but three times as many Democrats, 21%, that’s more than one in five, say they disapprove. You need much more unified support in your own party if you’re going to have a successful reelection campaign,” Kornacki said.
Politico added that Biden was also losing support among reliably Democratic constituencies:
Biden had only single-digit leads among voters 18-34 in polls this month from Morning Consult (Biden +2), Fox News (Biden +7) and Quinnipiac University (Biden +9). (Trump led Biden in all four polls among all voters.)
While younger voters tend to skew more liberal, the latest NBC poll found that voters ages 18-24 were actually leaning toward Trump, 46-42 percent.
“The youngest voters in the 2020 election were Biden +28,” Kornacki said. “This could be a massive sea change.”
Other recent surveys show Trump moving past Biden in a basket of key swing states.
According to a new PRRI Research/Ipsos survey, Biden barely edged Trump in a national two-person race, 48–46 percent, with 6 percent saying they did not prefer either candidate, according to Breitbart News last month.
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“However, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden in key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, leading Biden by a difference of six points—49 percent to the 80-year-old’s 43 percent,” the outlet added, citing the survey’s results.
Previous surveys have also shown Trump leading Biden in the critical swing states.
Voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were polled by Bloomberg/Morning Consult, and their results showed that Trump was ahead of Biden by 4 percentage points due to widespread disapproval of the president’s handling of the economy.
